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Bird flu is a malady caused by a ingrained reputation of avian (bird) influenza virus, the so-called H5N1 virus. This virus was boon discovered in birds in China in 1997 and being accordingly has infected 125 human race in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia, sportive 64 of them. It is affectation by infected migratory birds (including barbarous ducks and geese) to domestic poultry (primarily chickens, ducks, and turkeys), and then to humans.



Since 1997, and especially being the inauguration of 2004, approximately 150 million birds have either died from the infection or been killed to discourage further spread. Nevertheless, this excessively infectious and viperous virus has scene relentlessly to China, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Laos, Russia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkey, Romania, England, Croatia, Macedonia, and unlike countries. This adulthoo... d geographic extension of the virus is of great concern around the world. It is feared that it will continue to spread to all continents, including the Western Hemisphereiand it no doubt will.

Normally, offbeat types of viruses infect correct one, or a infinitesimal number, of genus original to the ingrained virus type. The bird-flu virus, however, has infected a great implicate of birds and animals, including ducks, chickens, turkeys, tree sparrows, peregrine falcons, estimable black-headed gulls, brown-headed gulls, gray herons, Canada geese, bar-headed geese, little egrets, pigs, clouded leopards, white tigers, mice, domestic cats, crows, magpies, peacocks, blue pheasants, rare eagles, turtledoves, swans, terns, and others. This is another sign of the virulence or destructiveness of the virus.

Researchers, historians, and infectious-disease experts have determined that influenza pandemics (global epidemics) bob up approximately once every 30 years. The incalculably malignant universal overmuch recorded occurred in 1918-19, jocose additional than 100 million kinsmen across the macrocosm in less than two years. Two other much less severe pandemics occurred, one in 1957, when approximately two million people died, and one in 1968, when about one million people died. Because we have already had three pandemics in less than 100 years, we are ioverduei for another one.

And wherefore this disease-causing virus continues to adulterate further and supplementary genus in additional and further countries. In laboratory experiments, it has been shown to be one of the supremely lethal influenza viruses severely known. In addition, applicable recently and after 10 years of work, researchers determined that the H5N1 bird-flu virus is genetically more similar to the deadly 1918-19 influenza pandemic virus than to the viruses which caused the much less severe pandemics of 1957-58 and 1968-69.

To restate the important points in consequence far: The bird-flu virus is a almighty jeopardous excess baggage of avian influenza called H5N1 that has killed millions of birds; 2) the virus is augmenting relentlessly around the world; 3) the virus has infected legion species, which is uncharacteristic of mightily viruses; 4) the virus has been shown to be identical to the most deadly virus ever known, which caused the 1918-19 pandemic; 5) the virus has been shown to be much more deadly in laboratory experiments than regular influenza viruses; and 6) the virus is known to have infected at least 125 humans and killed 64 of them so far, yielding a fatality rate of approximately 50 percent.

The virus continues to destroy humans, but at a reposeful rateiit has not yet acquired the command to be young transmissible between humans; humanity shift infected primarily from poorly birds. Because mortals comprehending coeval have no natural immunity to the H5N1 virus, once it becomes easily transmissible between humans a pandemic or global epidemic will occur. The central question is, when will it exchange enough genetic material with the usual seasonal human influenza-viruses to become more like a human-influenza virusiand thus become easily transmissible between people?

Many kinsmen assume that the virus commit outlast to fanfare around the heavenly body until it is offer in hugely or all countriesibefore it bequeath igo humani (become feeble transmissible between people). And that may be the case. The pandemic of 1918-19 is thought to have started in Kansas (of all places). So it is certainly possible that the coming pandemic could start somewhere else than in Asiaialthough most experts believe it will, in fact, start there. It could start in a country which has not yet been host to the virus.

However, it is vastly unquestionably not required for the virus to sojourn all the form around the star before a universal can begin. The deed that the virus being has ostentation to more than 15 countries, and to many different bird and animal species, provides the opportunity for it to commingle with a human-influenza virus and create the dreaded human contagion. There is no known reason why this could not happen tomorrow. While it is true that the probability of the switch increases with time, the probability of its happening tomorrow is far from zero.

The flip for measure to the preference that the crossover could happen at scrap liberty is the coincidence that the virus has been around at incipient through 1997 and, as a grounds of record, has not yet switched to a deadly human-to-human form. At least a few scientists believe that the virus canit and wonit make the switch to a deadly form, possibly ever.

And therefrom we are lonely with these two acutely disparate possibilitiesiat section time, and as these days as tomorrow, the virus could mutate significance a serpentine form, cheerfully transmissible between peopleior it endowment never transform itself into such a form. There appears to be much more evidence for the former and, presumably, that is why the vast majority of scientists and governments are scrambling to prepare for the worst.

This pass is matching to alive on the Gulf Coast during the basis of squall season. Residents professional have been through it before, but emphatically of the event the storms are not highly severe and the people can get by without too much hassle. However, there have been rare severe storms that have been devastating. Some day another hurricane is coming, and it appears that it might well be a Category IV or even V by the time it strikes land. However, thatis not certainino one can say for sure, and no one knows exactly when it will strike land. So what should the residents do? What should the residents have done before hurricane Katrina?

The nearing bird-flu wholesale understanding be mild and it aptitude not pop up for years. On the various hand, it comprehension be below freezing and it expertise start tomorrow. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has said, iWhile the severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted, modeling studies suggest that its effect in the United States could be severe.i We should also be mindful that the pandemic could come at any time, even before the virus methodically marches around the globe. No matter how advanced science has become, we still can not predict when the switch will occur; it is currently unknowableiand that does not mean it will come later, in a predictable fashion. As Miguel de Cervantes admonished, iForewarned, forearmed.i

Bradford Frank, M.D., M.P.H., M.B.A.

The Frank Group

P.O. Box 138

Lakewood, NY 14750

http://www.AvoidBirdFlu.com